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Creators/Authors contains: "Gibson, Dan"

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  1. Abstract Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is an important method in population ecology. A recent paper by Deane et al. (Ecology and Evolution13:e9847, 2023) attempted to explore the effects of different priors for covariance matrices on inference when using mark‐recovery data. Unfortunately, Deane et al. (2023) made a mistake when parameterizing some of their models. Rather than exploring the effects of different priors, they examined the effects of the use of incorrect equations on inference. In this manuscript, we clearly describe the mistake in Deane et al. (2023). We then demonstrate the use of an alternative and appropriate method and reach different conclusions regarding the effects of priors on inference. Consistent with other recent literature, informative inverse Wishart priors can lead to flawed inference, while vague priors on covariance matrix components have little impact when sample sizes are adequate. 
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  3. Abstract The management of sustainable harvest of animal populations is of great ecological and conservation importance. Development of formal quantitative tools to estimate and mitigate the impacts of harvest on animal populations has positively impacted conservation efforts.The vast majority of existing harvest models, however, do not simultaneously estimate ecological and harvest impacts on demographic parameters and population trends. Given that the impacts of ecological drivers are often equal to or greater than the effects of harvest, and can covary with harvest, this disconnect has the potential to lead to flawed inference.In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical models and a 43‐year capture–mark–recovery dataset from 404,241 female mallardsAnas platyrhynchosreleased in the North American midcontinent to estimate mallard demographic parameters. Furthermore, we model the dynamics of waterfowl hunters and habitat, and the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic and ecological processes on mallard demographic parameters.We demonstrate that density dependence, habitat conditions and harvest can simultaneously impact demographic parameters of female mallards, and discuss implications for existing and future harvest management models.Our results demonstrate the importance of controlling for multicollinearity among demographic drivers in harvest management models, and provide evidence for multiple mechanisms that lead to partial compensation of mallard harvest. We provide a novel model structure to assess these relationships that may allow for improved inference and prediction in future iterations of harvest management models across taxa. 
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